Evaluation and Analysis of Factors Affecting Delays in Large-Scale Complex Projects: Case Study of Oil Well Drilling

Abstract

The expansion of project scale typically leads to increased complexity, resulting in heightened uncertainty and challenges in predicting issues, evolving conditions, and unexpected opportunities that emerge and are recognized post-initiation. Economic development programs in a country allocate substantial financial resources to oil and energy projects to enhance social welfare and quality of life. Considering the value of these resources and the investment of time, executed projects must minimize delays to avoid the wastage of national capital and allocate resources effectively to enhance the country's economic prosperity. This study examines the drilling of oil wells as a megaproject, conducting research and investigation into this large-scale complex endeavour. According to expert opinions, researcher experience, and prior studies, three hypothetical factors are identified as the most significant contributors to project delays. The sample population size was determined to be 33 individuals through a comprehensive survey, and the preliminary study results were employed using Cochran's formula and Morgan's table. A questionnaire comprising 49 questions was subsequently developed and formulated in accordance with the specified hypotheses. The questionnaire was randomly distributed and collected from the sample population following verification of its validity and reliability. Statistical inference methods were utilized to examine and evaluate the hypotheses through the application of Student’s t-test. The results of the three hypotheses are presented according to their significance, ranked from the most influential factor (highest effect) to the least influential factor (lowest effect) on project duration. The three factors are summarized as follows: 1) performance of contractors, 2) performance of domestic producers, and 3) performance of project owners.